AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (379 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 5 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Dolphins bucked the trend — Warriors historically win 36% of games under Ashley Klein, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Ashley Klein's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Dolphins prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 63% probability. The predicted margin of 6.5 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Warriors
37%
Dolphins
63%
AI Match Overview
Dolphins hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Warriors are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Dolphins ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Dolphins carry a 58-point ELO rating advantage (1570 vs 1512). Recent form favours Dolphins with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Warriors. The margin model predicts Dolphins by 6.5 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dolphins to Win @2.10
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.5%
Line / Spread
Dolphins -2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.5%
Total Points
Under 45.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warriors | WWLLL | 20.0 |
Dolphins | WWWLL | 36.6 |
Avg Conceded
21.4
Warriors
21.2
Dolphins
Avg Margin
-1.4
Warriors
15.4
Dolphins
Run Metres
1580
Warriors
1950
Dolphins
Line Breaks
4.6
Warriors
7.4
Dolphins
Each team's win rate when Ashley Klein refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Ashley Klein officiates, Warriors have won 12 of 33 games (36%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Dolphins's 1 from 6 (17%). That's a 19‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 43.4 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Warriors an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 6 games for Dolphins — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
43.4 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1570 vs 1512), but the market favours Warriors (@1.91).
The model sides with ELO — Dolphins predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Dolphins predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: -6.5
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