NRL | Round 21

alphr.com.au

CAN
Raiders
VS
NEW
Knights
GIO STADIUM, CANBERRA • SUNDAY 27 JULY, 2:00 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 12 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Raiders's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend — Raiders have a 100% win rate under this referee. Raiders's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 74% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 9.7 but the actual margin was 26 points. The game's 62 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 42. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

74%RaidersFavourite

Raiders

74%

Knights

26%

AI Match Overview

Raiders are clear favourites here at 74%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Knights. The model sees Raiders ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Raiders carry a 292-point ELO rating advantage (1666 vs 1375). Recent form favours Raiders with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Knights. The margin model predicts Raiders by 9.7 points with a combined total of 42.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Raiders to Win @1.20

Winner ✓

Edge

-11.0%

Line / Spread

Raiders -13.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-11.0%

Total Points

Under 44.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+7.6%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Raiders
WWWWW
28.4
Knights
WLLLL
16.2

Avg Conceded

16.4

Raiders

21.2

Knights

Avg Margin

12.0

Raiders

-5.0

Knights

Run Metres

1849

Raiders

1762

Knights

Line Breaks

6.6

Raiders

4.2

Knights

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Raiders
Wyatt Raymond40 games since 2024

Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

CAN
100%4W 0L
NEW
25%1W 3L

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Raiders have won 4 of 4 games (100%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Knights's 1 from 4 (25%). That's a 75‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 49.9 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Raiders an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 4 games for Raiders — interpret with caution.

Avg Total

49.9 pts

Home Win %

57%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Knights lead 3-2
Jul 2025CAN 22 - 18 NEW
Jul 2024CAN 12 - 16 NEW
Mar 2024CAN 28 - 12 NEW
Sep 2023CAN 28 - 30 NEW
Aug 2023CAN 6 - 28 NEW
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAN
1666Overall1375
NEW
ELO difference: +292 in favour of Raiders

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1162Forwards1059
Best: 1351CAN +103Best: 1289
1087Backs1060
Best: 1200CAN +27Best: 1146
1395Halves770
Best: 1395CAN +625Best: 770
998Hooker1116
NEW +118

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAN
Stat
NEW
5.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
28.4pts
Avg Score
16.2pts
16.4pts
Avg Conceded
21.2pts
12.0pts
Avg Margin
-5.0pts
1849.0m
Run Metres
1762.4m
6.6
Line Breaks
4.2
357.2
Tackles
383.2
9.2
Errors
9.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Raiders
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Raiders
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Raiders
4
Halves Control9.0%
Raiders
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Raiders
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Raiders

Model Confidence

74%

Raiders predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: +9.7

2/3 match predictions correct
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