AI Referee Insights
Belinda Sharpe officiated this match (21 career games). The combined score of 26 points was 15 points below Belinda Sharpe's career average of 41. Sharks bucked the trend — Rabbitohs historically win 25% of games under Belinda Sharpe, but couldn't convert that edge today.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 67% probability. The predicted margin of 6.6 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The game's 26 points came in 28 points lower than the predicted 54. Sharks trailed 6–2 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 12–14. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
33%
Sharks
67%
AI Match Overview
Sharks are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Sharks carry a 232-point ELO rating advantage (1545 vs 1313). Recent form favours Sharks with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Sharks by 6.6 points with a combined total of 54.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.23
Winner ✓
Edge
-16.6%
Line / Spread
Sharks +11.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-16.6%
Total Points
Over 48.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+15.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | LLLLL | 18.4 |
Sharks | WWWLL | 23.8 |
Avg Conceded
31.8
Rabbitohs
22.4
Sharks
Avg Margin
-13.4
Rabbitohs
1.4
Sharks
Run Metres
1502
Rabbitohs
1791
Sharks
Line Breaks
4.8
Rabbitohs
5.4
Sharks
Each team's win rate when Belinda Sharpe refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Belinda Sharpe officiates, Rabbitohs have won 1 of 4 games (25%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Sharks's 0 from 1 (0%). That's a 25‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 41.0 pts, sitting close to the league average. Note: Based on a limited sample of 1 games for Sharks — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
41.0 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Sharks predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 54 · Line: -6.6
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