NRL | Round 20

alphr.com.au

MEL
Storm
VS
MAN
Sea Eagles
AAMI PARK, MELBOURNE • SATURDAY 19 JULY, 7:35 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 17 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 51. Sea Eagles bucked the trend — Storm historically win 100% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Sea Eagles prevailed.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Sea Eagles defied the model's 75% prediction for Storm — a notable upset. The predicted margin of 7.5 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

75%StormFavourite

Storm

75%

Sea Eagles

25%

AI Match Overview

Storm are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sea Eagles. The model sees Storm ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Storm carry a 236-point ELO rating advantage (1708 vs 1472). Recent form favours Storm with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Sea Eagles. The margin model predicts Storm by 7.5 points with a combined total of 40.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Storm to Win @1.33

Lost ✗

Edge

-2.4%

Line / Spread

Storm -8.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

-2.4%

Total Points

Under 47.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+20.6%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Storm
WWWWW
30.2
Sea Eagles
WWWLL
24.4

Avg Conceded

15.6

Storm

16.4

Sea Eagles

Avg Margin

14.6

Storm

8.0

Sea Eagles

Run Metres

1861

Storm

1746

Sea Eagles

Line Breaks

4.2

Storm

5.8

Sea Eagles

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Storm
Wyatt Raymond40 games since 2024

Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

MEL
100%3W 0L
MAN
33%1W 2L

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Storm have won 3 of 3 games (100%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Sea Eagles's 1 from 3 (33%). That's a 67‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 50.6 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Storm an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 3 games for Storm — interpret with caution.

Avg Total

50.6 pts

Home Win %

60%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Sea Eagles lead 3-2
Apr 2025MEL 48 - 24 MAN
May 2024MEL 20 - 26 MAN
Jul 2023MEL 24 - 6 MAN
Apr 2023MEL 8 - 18 MAN
Jun 2022MEL 30 - 36 MAN
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

MEL
1708Overall1472
MAN
ELO difference: +236 in favour of Storm

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1088Forwards1058
Best: 1288MEL +30Best: 1230
998Backs1141
Best: 1106MAN +143Best: 1200
1409Halves1114
Best: 1409MEL +294Best: 1114
1040Hooker1032
Even

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

MEL
Stat
MAN
5.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
30.2pts
Avg Score
24.4pts
15.6pts
Avg Conceded
16.4pts
14.6pts
Avg Margin
8.0pts
1860.6m
Run Metres
1746.2m
4.2
Line Breaks
5.8
326.8
Tackles
352.6
10.8
Errors
10.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Storm
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Storm
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Eagles
4
Halves Control9.0%
Storm
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Storm
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Storm
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Storm

Model Confidence

75%

Storm predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 40 · Line: +7.5

1/3 match predictions correct
Coming Soon

Try Scorer Predictions

AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props