AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (287 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 9 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Warriors's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Warriors defied the model's 70% prediction for Sea Eagles — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 2.0 but the actual margin was 20 points. Warriors led 18–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. A tough result for the model — all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Warriors
30%
Sea Eagles
70%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Warriors. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sea Eagles carry a 177-point ELO rating advantage (1566 vs 1389). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Warriors. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 2.0 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.45
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.4%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles +7.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.4%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+12.7%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warriors | WLLLL | 19.6 |
Sea Eagles | WWWLL | 27.2 |
Avg Conceded
30.0
Warriors
27.2
Sea Eagles
Avg Margin
-10.4
Warriors
0.0
Sea Eagles
Run Metres
1733
Warriors
1593
Sea Eagles
Line Breaks
4.0
Warriors
5.0
Sea Eagles
Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Adam Gee officiates — Warriors 14W–17L (45%) and Sea Eagles 15W–21L (42%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 42.6 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Warriors an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
42.6 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
70%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: -2.0
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