AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (99 career games). The combined score of 70 points was 24 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46. Despite Todd Smith's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Roosters prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Roosters defied the model's 76% prediction for Panthers — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 14.6 but the actual margin was 6 points. The game's 70 points came in 25 points higher than the predicted 45. A tough result for the model — all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Panthers
76%
Roosters
24%
AI Match Overview
Panthers are clear favourites here at 76%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Roosters. The model sees Panthers ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Panthers carry a 148-point ELO rating advantage (1650 vs 1502). Recent form favours Panthers with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Roosters. The margin model predicts Panthers by 14.6 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.12
Lost ✗
Edge
-18.5%
Line / Spread
Panthers -15.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-18.5%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+14.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Panthers | WWWWW | 27.2 |
Roosters | WWLLL | 23.6 |
Avg Conceded
12.4
Panthers
34.4
Roosters
Avg Margin
14.8
Panthers
-10.8
Roosters
Run Metres
1908
Panthers
1487
Roosters
Line Breaks
5.4
Panthers
4.8
Roosters
Each team's win rate when Todd Smith refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Todd Smith officiates — Panthers 7W–5L (58%) and Roosters 6W–5L (55%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 45.7 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Panthers an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
45.7 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
76%
Panthers predicted to win by 15 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +14.6
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