AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (379 career games). The combined score of 49 points was 6 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Despite Ashley Klein's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Rabbitohs prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Rabbitohs defied the model's 59% prediction for Dragons — a notable result. The predicted margin of 7.6 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. Rabbitohs trailed 14–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 24–25. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 51.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Dragons
59%
Rabbitohs
41%
AI Match Overview
Dragons hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Rabbitohs are far from out of this at 41%. The model sees Dragons ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model predicts Dragons by 7.6 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dragons to Win @1.45
Lost ✗
Edge
-9.6%
Line / Spread
Dragons -6.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-9.6%
Total Points
Under 51.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+25.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dragons | WLLLL | 25.2 |
Rabbitohs | WLLLL | 17.6 |
Avg Conceded
30.4
Dragons
27.6
Rabbitohs
Avg Margin
-5.2
Dragons
-10.0
Rabbitohs
Run Metres
1657
Dragons
1628
Rabbitohs
Line Breaks
5.2
Dragons
3.2
Rabbitohs
Each team's win rate when Ashley Klein refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Ashley Klein officiates — Dragons 18W–21L (46%) and Rabbitohs 29W–28L (51%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 43.4 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Dragons an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
43.4 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
59%
Dragons predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +7.6
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