AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (360 career games). The combined score of 48 points was 6 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Warriors's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend — Warriors have a 35% win rate under this referee. Warriors's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile — home teams win 56% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 66% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 7.5 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 48 — within 5 points. Warriors led 16–8 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Warriors
66%
Wests Tigers
34%
AI Match Overview
Warriors are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Warriors carry a 191-point ELO rating advantage (1526 vs 1335). Recent form favours Warriors with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Warriors by 7.5 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warriors to Win @1.37
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.0%
Line / Spread
Warriors -9.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.0%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+8.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warriors | WWLLL | 23.2 |
Wests Tigers | WLLLL | 18.8 |
Avg Conceded
22.0
Warriors
24.4
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
1.2
Warriors
-5.6
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1582
Warriors
1690
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
3.8
Warriors
4.2
Wests Tigers
Each team's win rate when Gerard Sutton refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Warriors hold a 6‑point edge: 8W–15L (35%) vs Wests Tigers's 11W–27L (29%) across all games Gerard Sutton has refereed for each side. His games average 41.9 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Warriors an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
41.9 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Warriors predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +7.5
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