NRL | Round 19

alphr.com.au

GLD
Titans
VS
BRI
Broncos
CBUS SUPER STADIUM, GOLD COAST • SUNDAY 13 JULY, 6:15 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (59 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 5 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 45. Broncos's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend — Broncos have a 33% win rate under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 62% probability. The predicted margin of 7.1 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

62%BroncosFavourite

Titans

38%

Broncos

62%

AI Match Overview

Broncos hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 38%. The model sees Broncos ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. Broncos carry a 232-point ELO rating advantage (1522 vs 1290). Recent form favours Broncos with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Broncos by 7.1 points with a combined total of 50.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Broncos to Win @1.27

Winner ✓

Edge

-14.5%

Line / Spread

Broncos +11.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-14.5%

Total Points

Under 50.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.2%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Titans
WLLLL
20.4
Broncos
WWWWL
26.4

Avg Conceded

29.2

Titans

21.2

Broncos

Avg Margin

-8.8

Titans

5.2

Broncos

Run Metres

1681

Titans

1599

Broncos

Line Breaks

3.8

Titans

6.8

Broncos

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Broncos
Liam Kennedy59 games since 2018

Each team's win rate when Liam Kennedy refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

GLD
23%3W 10L
BRI
33%1W 2L

Broncos hold a 10‑point edge: 1W–2L (33%) vs Titans's 3W–10L (23%) across all games Liam Kennedy has refereed for each side. His games average 45.4 pts, sitting close to the league average. Note: Based on a limited sample of 3 games for Broncos — interpret with caution.

Avg Total

45.4 pts

Home Win %

53%

Home Bias

Neutral

H2H History (Last 5)Titans lead 3-2
Apr 2026GLD 12 - 26 BRI
Jun 2025GLD 14 - 44 BRI
Aug 2024GLD 46 - 18 BRI
May 2024GLD 36 - 34 BRI
Jul 2023GLD 18 - 12 BRI
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

GLD
1290Overall1522
BRI
ELO difference: -232 in favour of Broncos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1155Forwards1111
Best: 1243GLD +44Best: 1331
1069Backs1013
Best: 1194GLD +56Best: 1158
1058Halves1230
Best: 1058BRI +172Best: 1230
1124Hooker910
GLD +214

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

GLD
Stat
BRI
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
20.4pts
Avg Score
26.4pts
29.2pts
Avg Conceded
21.2pts
-8.8pts
Avg Margin
5.2pts
1680.8m
Run Metres
1599.0m
3.8
Line Breaks
6.8
341.2
Tackles
353.6
9.8
Errors
11.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Broncos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Titans
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Titans
4
Halves Control9.0%
Broncos
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Broncos
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Broncos

Model Confidence

62%

Broncos predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 50 · Line: -7.1

3/3 match predictions correct
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