AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (99 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Todd Smith's career average of 46. Storm's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend — Storm have a 67% win rate under this referee. Despite Todd Smith's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Storm prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 63% probability. The predicted margin of 6.6 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. Total score prediction of 49 was close to the actual 46 — within 3 points. Storm trailed 8–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 14–32. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Knights
37%
Storm
63%
AI Match Overview
Storm hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Storm ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Storm carry a 297-point ELO rating advantage (1697 vs 1400). Recent form favours Storm with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Knights. The margin model predicts Storm by 6.6 points with a combined total of 49.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.24
Winner ✓
Edge
-12.0%
Line / Spread
Storm +12.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-12.0%
Total Points
Over 45.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+7.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Knights | WWLLL | 16.8 |
Storm | WWWWW | 29.4 |
Avg Conceded
19.2
Knights
16.0
Storm
Avg Margin
-2.4
Knights
13.4
Storm
Run Metres
1795
Knights
1836
Storm
Line Breaks
3.8
Knights
3.8
Storm
Each team's win rate when Todd Smith refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Todd Smith officiates, Storm have won 8 of 12 games (67%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Knights's 1 from 6 (17%). That's a 50‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 45.9 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Knights an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 6 games for Knights — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
45.9 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Storm predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 49 · Line: -6.6
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