NRL | Round 19

alphr.com.au

NQL
Cowboys
VS
CBY
Bulldogs
QUEENSLAND COUNTRY BANK STADIUM, TOWNSVILLE • SATURDAY 12 JULY, 7:35 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The combined score of 20 points was 31 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 51. Bulldogs bucked the trend — Cowboys historically win 67% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Bulldogs prevailed.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 61% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Bulldogs by 2.9 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 20 points came in 19 points lower than the predicted 39. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

61%BulldogsFavourite

Cowboys

39%

Bulldogs

61%

AI Match Overview

Bulldogs hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Cowboys are far from out of this at 39%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Bulldogs carry a 136-point ELO rating advantage (1541 vs 1404). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Cowboys. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 2.9 points with a combined total of 39.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Bulldogs to Win @1.42

Winner ✓

Edge

-5.0%

Line / Spread

Bulldogs +7.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-5.0%

Total Points

Under 47.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+23.1%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Cowboys
WLLLL
15.2
Bulldogs
WWLLL
17.2

Avg Conceded

37.6

Cowboys

20.8

Bulldogs

Avg Margin

-22.4

Cowboys

-3.6

Bulldogs

Run Metres

1560

Cowboys

1749

Bulldogs

Line Breaks

4.4

Cowboys

3.4

Bulldogs

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Cowboys
Wyatt Raymond40 games since 2024

Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

NQL
67%2W 1L
CBY
60%3W 2L

Cowboys hold a 7‑point edge: 2W–1L (67%) vs Bulldogs's 3W–2L (60%) across all games Wyatt Raymond has refereed for each side. His games average 51.0 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Cowboys an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 3 games for Cowboys — interpret with caution.

Avg Total

51.0 pts

Home Win %

60%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Cowboys lead 3-2
Sep 2024NQL 44 - 6 CBY
Jul 2024NQL 20 - 18 CBY
Apr 2023NQL 14 - 15 CBY
Aug 2022NQL 28 - 14 CBY
Mar 2022NQL 4 - 6 CBY
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

NQL
1404Overall1541
CBY
ELO difference: -136 in favour of Bulldogs

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1116Forwards1081
Best: 1275NQL +35Best: 1254
1054Backs1036
Best: 1140NQL +19Best: 1092
906Halves1184
Best: 906CBY +278Best: 1184
1065Hooker1101
CBY +36

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

NQL
Stat
CBY
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
15.2pts
Avg Score
17.2pts
37.6pts
Avg Conceded
20.8pts
-22.4pts
Avg Margin
-3.6pts
1560.4m
Run Metres
1749.4m
4.4
Line Breaks
3.4
363.8
Tackles
360.6
14.6
Errors
11.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Bulldogs
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Cowboys
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Cowboys
4
Halves Control9.0%
Bulldogs
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Bulldogs
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Cowboys
7
Venue Advantage7.0%

Model Confidence

61%

Bulldogs predicted to win by 3 points

Predicted total: 39 · Line: -2.9

3/3 match predictions correct
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