NRL | Round 17

alphr.com.au

MEL
Storm
VS
CRO
Sharks
AAMI PARK, MELBOURNE • SUNDAY 29 JUNE, 2:00 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Ashley Klein officiated this match (379 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 7 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Storm's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend — Storm have a 62% win rate under this referee. Storm's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile — home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 75% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 8.1 but the actual margin was 24 points. Storm led 10–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

75%StormFavourite

Storm

75%

Sharks

25%

AI Match Overview

Storm are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sharks. The model sees Storm ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Storm carry a 173-point ELO rating advantage (1669 vs 1496). Recent form favours Storm with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sharks. The margin model predicts Storm by 8.1 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Storm to Win @1.33

Winner ✓

Edge

-2.1%

Line / Spread

Storm -9.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-2.1%

Total Points

Under 48.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+15.8%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Storm
WWWWL
36.2
Sharks
WWLLL
23.0

Avg Conceded

17.0

Storm

32.0

Sharks

Avg Margin

19.2

Storm

-9.0

Sharks

Run Metres

1836

Storm

1678

Sharks

Line Breaks

5.2

Storm

5.6

Sharks

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Storm
Ashley Klein379 games since 2010

Each team's win rate when Ashley Klein refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

MEL
62%39W 24L
CRO
45%25W 31L

When Ashley Klein officiates, Storm have won 39 of 63 games (62%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Sharks's 25 from 56 (45%). That's a 17‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 43.4 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Storm an additional edge at home.

Avg Total

43.4 pts

Home Win %

60%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Storm lead 3-2
Oct 2025MEL 22 - 14 CRO
May 2025MEL 26 - 31 CRO
Sep 2024MEL 37 - 10 CRO
May 2024MEL 18 - 25 CRO
Jun 2023MEL 54 - 10 CRO
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

MEL
1669Overall1496
CRO
ELO difference: +173 in favour of Storm

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1109Forwards1118
Best: 1266EvenBest: 1267
974Backs927
Best: 1122MEL +47Best: 1044
1220Halves1183
Best: 1220MEL +37Best: 1183
1196Hooker1203
Even

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

MEL
Stat
CRO
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
36.2pts
Avg Score
23.0pts
17.0pts
Avg Conceded
32.0pts
19.2pts
Avg Margin
-9.0pts
1836.4m
Run Metres
1678.4m
5.2
Line Breaks
5.6
314.4
Tackles
340.0
12.0
Errors
10.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Storm
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Sharks
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Storm
4
Halves Control9.0%
Storm
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Storm
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Storm
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Storm

Model Confidence

75%

Storm predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: +8.1

3/3 match predictions correct
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