AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (360 career games). The 38-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Sea Eagles's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend — Sea Eagles have a 47% win rate under this referee. Sea Eagles's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile — home teams win 56% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 72% probability. The predicted margin of 13.0 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 38 — within 4 points. Sea Eagles led 6–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 18. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
72%
Wests Tigers
28%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles are clear favourites here at 72%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Sea Eagles carry a 100-point ELO rating advantage (1424 vs 1324). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 13.0 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.54
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.2%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles -5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.2%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+18.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | WWLLL | 19.6 |
Wests Tigers | LLLLL | 13.2 |
Avg Conceded
19.2
Sea Eagles
30.4
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
0.4
Sea Eagles
-17.2
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1792
Sea Eagles
1725
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
5.6
Sea Eagles
4.0
Wests Tigers
Each team's win rate when Gerard Sutton refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Gerard Sutton officiates, Sea Eagles have won 20 of 43 games (47%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 11 from 38 (29%). That's a 18‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 41.9 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Sea Eagles an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
41.9 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
72%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 13 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +13.0
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