AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (99 career games). The combined score of 78 points was 32 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46. Dolphins's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend — Dolphins have a 67% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 62% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 6.1 but the actual margin was 22 points. The game's 78 points came in 35 points higher than the predicted 43. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Dolphins
62%
Rabbitohs
38%
AI Match Overview
Dolphins hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Rabbitohs are far from out of this at 38%. The model sees Dolphins ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Dolphins carry a 204-point ELO rating advantage (1573 vs 1369). Recent form favours Dolphins with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Dolphins by 6.1 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dolphins to Win @1.56
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.6%
Line / Spread
Dolphins -4.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.6%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+16.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dolphins | WWWLL | 38.0 |
Rabbitohs | WLLLL | 21.2 |
Avg Conceded
12.0
Dolphins
26.6
Rabbitohs
Avg Margin
26.0
Dolphins
-5.4
Rabbitohs
Run Metres
1912
Dolphins
1542
Rabbitohs
Line Breaks
6.8
Dolphins
4.0
Rabbitohs
Each team's win rate when Todd Smith refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Todd Smith officiates, Dolphins have won 6 of 9 games (67%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 5 from 11 (45%). That's a 22‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 45.6 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
45.6 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Dolphins predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +6.1
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.