NRL | Round 16

alphr.com.au

WST
Wests Tigers
VS
CAN
Raiders
CAMPBELLTOWN SPORTS STADIUM, SYDNEY • FRIDAY 20 JUNE, 8:00 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Adam Gee officiated this match (287 career games). The combined score of 28 points was 15 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Raiders's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend — Raiders have a 53% win rate under this referee. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Raiders prevailed.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 67% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Raiders by 4.2 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 28 points came in 19 points lower than the predicted 47. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

67%RaidersFavourite

Wests Tigers

33%

Raiders

67%

AI Match Overview

Raiders are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. The model sees Raiders ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Raiders carry a 298-point ELO rating advantage (1629 vs 1332). Recent form favours Raiders with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Raiders by 4.2 points with a combined total of 47.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Raiders to Win @1.35

Winner ✓

Edge

-8.3%

Line / Spread

Raiders +8.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-8.3%

Total Points

Under 47.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-2.2%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wests Tigers
WLLLL
17.6
Raiders
WWWWL
27.6

Avg Conceded

32.8

Wests Tigers

20.4

Raiders

Avg Margin

-15.2

Wests Tigers

7.2

Raiders

Run Metres

1687

Wests Tigers

1743

Raiders

Line Breaks

3.6

Wests Tigers

5.2

Raiders

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Raiders
Adam Gee287 games since 2013

Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

WST
47%18W 20L
CAN
53%21W 19L

Raiders hold a 6‑point edge: 21W–19L (53%) vs Wests Tigers's 18W–20L (47%) across all games Adam Gee has refereed for each side. His games average 42.7 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Wests Tigers an additional edge at home.

Avg Total

42.7 pts

Home Win %

57%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Raiders lead 4-1
Sep 2025WST 10 - 24 CAN
Jun 2024WST 48 - 24 CAN
Mar 2024WST 12 - 32 CAN
Aug 2023WST 18 - 22 CAN
Jun 2023WST 19 - 20 CAN
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WST
1332Overall1629
CAN
ELO difference: -298 in favour of Raiders

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1007Forwards1198
Best: 1266CAN +190Best: 1331
1002Backs886
Best: 1053WST +116Best: 933
1029Halves1345
Best: 1029CAN +316Best: 1345
1096Hooker1200
CAN +104

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WST
Stat
CAN
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
17.6pts
Avg Score
27.6pts
32.8pts
Avg Conceded
20.4pts
-15.2pts
Avg Margin
7.2pts
1686.8m
Run Metres
1742.8m
3.6
Line Breaks
5.2
348.4
Tackles
339.8
11.2
Errors
9.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Raiders
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Raiders
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Tigers
4
Halves Control9.0%
Raiders
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Raiders
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Tigers
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Raiders

Model Confidence

67%

Raiders predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 47 · Line: -4.2

3/3 match predictions correct
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