AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (379 career games). The combined score of 50 points was 7 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend — Roosters have a 59% win rate under this referee. Roosters's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile — home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 69% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 7.6 but the actual margin was 34 points. Roosters led 18–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 34. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Roosters
69%
Cowboys
31%
AI Match Overview
Roosters are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Cowboys. The model sees Roosters ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Roosters carry a 108-point ELO rating advantage (1535 vs 1427). Recent form favours Roosters with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Cowboys. The margin model predicts Roosters by 7.6 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.48
Winner ✓
Edge
-4.8%
Line / Spread
Roosters -5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-4.8%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+20.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Roosters | WWWLL | 26.8 |
Cowboys | WLLLL | 17.2 |
Avg Conceded
20.0
Roosters
35.6
Cowboys
Avg Margin
6.8
Roosters
-18.4
Cowboys
Run Metres
1696
Roosters
1702
Cowboys
Line Breaks
5.0
Roosters
4.8
Cowboys
Each team's win rate when Ashley Klein refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Roosters hold a 14‑point edge: 40W–28L (59%) vs Cowboys's 18W–22L (45%) across all games Ashley Klein has refereed for each side. His games average 43.4 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Roosters an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
43.4 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
69%
Roosters predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +7.6
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