AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (176 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 8 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Titans bucked the trend — Sea Eagles historically win 50% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Titans defied the model's 67% prediction for Sea Eagles — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 9.8 but the actual margin was 20 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 50.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Titans
33%
Sea Eagles
67%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Titans. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sea Eagles carry a 192-point ELO rating advantage (1478 vs 1286). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 9.8 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.32
Lost ✗
Edge
-11.9%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles +10.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-11.9%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Titans | WLLLL | 19.2 |
Sea Eagles | WWLLL | 20.8 |
Avg Conceded
34.0
Titans
19.6
Sea Eagles
Avg Margin
-14.8
Titans
1.2
Sea Eagles
Run Metres
1599
Titans
1732
Sea Eagles
Line Breaks
3.8
Titans
5.4
Sea Eagles
Each team's win rate when Peter Gough refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Peter Gough officiates, Sea Eagles have won 8 of 16 games (50%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Titans's 6 from 22 (27%). That's a 23‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 44.3 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
44.3 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Neutral
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: -9.8
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