AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (287 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Bulldogs prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 67% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Bulldogs by 2.7 vs the actual margin of 6 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 42 — within 2 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
33%
Bulldogs
67%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Bulldogs carry a 193-point ELO rating advantage (1582 vs 1389). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 2.7 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.43
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.4%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs +7.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.4%
Total Points
Under 45.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | WWLLL | 18.0 |
Bulldogs | WWWWL | 26.4 |
Avg Conceded
25.6
Rabbitohs
22.8
Bulldogs
Avg Margin
-7.6
Rabbitohs
3.6
Bulldogs
Run Metres
1668
Rabbitohs
1734
Bulldogs
Line Breaks
3.4
Rabbitohs
5.0
Bulldogs
Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Adam Gee officiates — Rabbitohs 14W–16L (47%) and Bulldogs 13W–14L (48%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 42.7 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Rabbitohs an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
42.7 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: -2.7
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