AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (360 career games). The combined score of 20 points was 22 points below Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Roosters prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 57% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Roosters by 4.3 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 20 points came in 26 points lower than the predicted 46. Roosters trailed 6–0 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 8–12. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Knights
43%
Roosters
57%
AI Match Overview
Roosters hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 43%. The model sees Roosters ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Roosters carry a 134-point ELO rating advantage (1520 vs 1387). Recent form favours Roosters with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Knights. The margin model predicts Roosters by 4.3 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
-18.6%
Line / Spread
Roosters +5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-18.6%
Total Points
Over 43.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+4.7%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Knights | WWLLL | 16.6 |
Roosters | WWWLL | 33.6 |
Avg Conceded
20.0
Knights
22.0
Roosters
Avg Margin
-3.4
Knights
11.6
Roosters
Run Metres
1776
Knights
1725
Roosters
Line Breaks
4.8
Knights
6.4
Roosters
Each team's win rate when Gerard Sutton refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Gerard Sutton officiates — Knights 16W–16L (50%) and Roosters 31W–27L (53%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 41.9 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Knights an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
41.9 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Roosters predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -4.3
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