NRL | Round 14

alphr.com.au

MEL
Storm
VS
NQL
Cowboys
AAMI PARK, MELBOURNE • FRIDAY 6 JUNE, 6:00 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Grant Atkins officiated this match (312 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 9 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Storm's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend — Storm have a 66% win rate under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 74% probability. The predicted margin of 13.5 was reasonable against the actual 24-point result. Storm led 18–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 13+ margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

74%StormFavourite

Storm

74%

Cowboys

26%

AI Match Overview

Storm are clear favourites here at 74%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Cowboys. The model sees Storm ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 138-point ELO rating advantage (1639 vs 1501). Recent form favours Storm with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Cowboys. The margin model predicts Storm by 13.5 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Storm to Win @1.23

Winner ✓

Edge

-9.8%

Line / Spread

Storm -14.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-9.8%

Total Points

Under 50.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+20.2%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Storm
WWWLL
32.0
Cowboys
WWLLL
28.8

Avg Conceded

16.6

Storm

26.0

Cowboys

Avg Margin

15.4

Storm

2.8

Cowboys

Run Metres

1796

Storm

1865

Cowboys

Line Breaks

5.4

Storm

6.8

Cowboys

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Storm
Grant Atkins312 games since 2013

Each team's win rate when Grant Atkins refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

MEL
66%33W 17L
NQL
45%14W 17L

When Grant Atkins officiates, Storm have won 33 of 50 games (66%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Cowboys's 14 from 31 (45%). That's a 21‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 42.9 pts, sitting close to the league average.

Avg Total

42.9 pts

Home Win %

55%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Cowboys lead 4-1
Mar 2026MEL 24 - 28 NQL
Jul 2025MEL 26 - 20 NQL
Sep 2024MEL 30 - 38 NQL
Jun 2023MEL 20 - 45 NQL
May 2022MEL 6 - 36 NQL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

MEL
1639Overall1501
NQL
ELO difference: +138 in favour of Storm

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1140Forwards1100
Best: 1323MEL +40Best: 1278
1083Backs1042
Best: 1144MEL +41Best: 1145
1119Halves1281
Best: 1119NQL +162Best: 1281
1093Hooker979
MEL +115

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

MEL
Stat
NQL
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
32.0pts
Avg Score
28.8pts
16.6pts
Avg Conceded
26.0pts
15.4pts
Avg Margin
2.8pts
1796.4m
Run Metres
1865.0m
5.4
Line Breaks
6.8
317.0
Tackles
335.2
11.4
Errors
13.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Storm
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Storm
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Storm
4
Halves Control9.0%
Cowboys
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Storm
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Storm

Model Confidence

74%

Storm predicted to win by 14 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: +13.5

2/3 match predictions correct
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