AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (176 career games). The combined score of 50 points was 6 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Warriors bucked the trend — Sharks historically win 76% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Warriors defied the model's 70% prediction for Sharks — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 6.6 but the actual margin was 30 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 50 — within 6 points. Warriors led 10–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 30. A tough result for the model — all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sharks
70%
Warriors
30%
AI Match Overview
Sharks are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Warriors. Warriors are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control — but Sharks counter with Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Recent form favours Warriors with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Sharks. The margin model predicts Sharks by 6.6 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.45
Lost ✗
Edge
-1.5%
Line / Spread
Sharks -5.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-1.5%
Total Points
Under 44.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-1.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sharks | WWWLL | 24.6 |
Warriors | WWWWL | 21.4 |
Avg Conceded
24.0
Sharks
19.6
Warriors
Avg Margin
0.6
Sharks
1.8
Warriors
Run Metres
1680
Sharks
1635
Warriors
Line Breaks
4.2
Sharks
3.6
Warriors
Each team's win rate when Peter Gough refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Peter Gough officiates, Sharks have won 13 of 17 games (76%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Warriors's 11 from 22 (50%). That's a 26‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 44.2 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Warriors hold the ELO advantage (1560 vs 1554), but the market favours Sharks (@1.45).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
70%
Sharks predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +6.6
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