NRL | Round 14

alphr.com.au

NEW
Knights
VS
MAN
Sea Eagles
MCDONALD JONES STADIUM, NEWCASTLE • THURSDAY 5 JUNE, 7:50 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Knights bucked the trend — Sea Eagles historically win 67% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Knights's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Knights defied the model's 57% prediction for Sea Eagles — a notable result. The predicted margin of 5.5 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Total score prediction of 50 was close to the actual 48 — within 2 points. Knights trailed 0–16 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 26–22. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 43.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

57%Sea EaglesFavourite

Knights

43%

Sea Eagles

57%

AI Match Overview

Sea Eagles hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 43%. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sea Eagles carry a 157-point ELO rating advantage (1511 vs 1354). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Knights. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 5.5 points with a combined total of 50.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Sea Eagles to Win @1.53

Lost ✗

Edge

-14.0%

Line / Spread

Sea Eagles +5.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

-14.0%

Total Points

Over 43.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+16.8%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Knights
WWLLL
17.4
Sea Eagles
WWWLL
21.6

Avg Conceded

16.4

Knights

16.4

Sea Eagles

Avg Margin

1.0

Knights

5.2

Sea Eagles

Run Metres

1848

Knights

1659

Sea Eagles

Line Breaks

5.8

Knights

5.0

Sea Eagles

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Sea Eagles
Wyatt Raymond40 games since 2024

Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

NEW
0%0W 4L
MAN
67%2W 1L

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Sea Eagles have won 2 of 3 games (67%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Knights's 0 from 4 (0%). That's a 67‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 50.3 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Knights an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 3 games for Sea Eagles — interpret with caution.

Avg Total

50.3 pts

Home Win %

57%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Tied 2-2
Mar 2026NEW 36 - 16 MAN
Jul 2024NEW 6 - 44 MAN
Jun 2023NEW 28 - 18 MAN
Apr 2023NEW 32 - 32 MAN
Jul 2022NEW 12 - 42 MAN
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

NEW
1354Overall1511
MAN
ELO difference: -157 in favour of Sea Eagles

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1112Forwards1207
Best: 1261MAN +95Best: 1322
1015Backs1050
Best: 1147MAN +35Best: 1153
973Halves1431
Best: 973MAN +458Best: 1431
1047Hooker627
NEW +420

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

NEW
Stat
MAN
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
17.4pts
Avg Score
21.6pts
16.4pts
Avg Conceded
16.4pts
1.0pts
Avg Margin
5.2pts
1848.4m
Run Metres
1659.2m
5.8
Line Breaks
5.0
387.6
Tackles
342.8
12.8
Errors
10.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Eagles
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Eagles
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Eagles
4
Halves Control9.0%
Eagles
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Eagles
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Knights
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Eagles

Model Confidence

57%

Sea Eagles predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 50 · Line: -5.5

1/3 match predictions correct
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