AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Knights bucked the trend — Sea Eagles historically win 67% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Knights's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Knights defied the model's 57% prediction for Sea Eagles — a notable result. The predicted margin of 5.5 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Total score prediction of 50 was close to the actual 48 — within 2 points. Knights trailed 0–16 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 26–22. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 43.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Knights
43%
Sea Eagles
57%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 43%. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sea Eagles carry a 157-point ELO rating advantage (1511 vs 1354). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Knights. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 5.5 points with a combined total of 50.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.53
Lost ✗
Edge
-14.0%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles +5.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-14.0%
Total Points
Over 43.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+16.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Knights | WWLLL | 17.4 |
Sea Eagles | WWWLL | 21.6 |
Avg Conceded
16.4
Knights
16.4
Sea Eagles
Avg Margin
1.0
Knights
5.2
Sea Eagles
Run Metres
1848
Knights
1659
Sea Eagles
Line Breaks
5.8
Knights
5.0
Sea Eagles
Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Sea Eagles have won 2 of 3 games (67%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Knights's 0 from 4 (0%). That's a 67‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 50.3 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Knights an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 3 games for Sea Eagles — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
50.3 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 50 · Line: -5.5
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