AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (360 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Bulldogs's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile — home teams win 56% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 67% probability. The predicted margin of 7.3 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 42 — within 2 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
67%
Eels
33%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Eels. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency. Bulldogs carry a 169-point ELO rating advantage (1564 vs 1395). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Eels. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 7.3 points with a combined total of 40.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.40
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.0%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs -8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.0%
Total Points
Under 44.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+12.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | WWWLL | 24.0 |
Eels | WWLLL | 20.4 |
Avg Conceded
28.8
Bulldogs
16.4
Eels
Avg Margin
-4.8
Bulldogs
4.0
Eels
Run Metres
1518
Bulldogs
1796
Eels
Line Breaks
4.4
Bulldogs
5.8
Eels
Each team's win rate when Gerard Sutton refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Gerard Sutton officiates — Bulldogs 13W–25L (34%) and Eels 14W–22L (39%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 41.9 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Bulldogs an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
41.9 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 40 · Line: +7.3
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