AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The combined score of 66 points was 16 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Warriors bucked the trend — Rabbitohs historically win 60% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Warriors prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 51% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Warriors by 3.2 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The game's 66 points came in 18 points higher than the predicted 48. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
49%
Warriors
51%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Warriors a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Rabbitohs are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Referee Tendency — but Warriors counter with ELO Difference and Halves Control which tips the scales. Warriors carry a 118-point ELO rating advantage (1543 vs 1425). Recent form favours Warriors with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Warriors by 3.2 points with a combined total of 48.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warriors to Win @1.75
Winner ✓
Edge
-8.6%
Line / Spread
Warriors +1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-8.6%
Total Points
Over 45.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+6.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | WWLLL | 12.8 |
Warriors | WWWWL | 19.4 |
Avg Conceded
22.4
Rabbitohs
16.0
Warriors
Avg Margin
-9.6
Rabbitohs
3.4
Warriors
Run Metres
1599
Rabbitohs
1669
Warriors
Line Breaks
2.4
Rabbitohs
3.8
Warriors
Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Rabbitohs hold a 10‑point edge: 3W–2L (60%) vs Warriors's 3W–3L (50%) across all games Wyatt Raymond has refereed for each side. His games average 49.8 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Rabbitohs an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 5 games for Rabbitohs — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
49.8 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
51%
Warriors predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 48 · Line: -3.2
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