NRL | Round 13

alphr.com.au

PEN
Panthers
VS
PAR
Eels
COMMBANK STADIUM, SYDNEY • SUNDAY 1 JUNE, 4:05 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Peter Gough officiated this match (176 career games). The combined score of 28 points was 16 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Panthers's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend — Panthers have a 68% win rate under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 70% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Panthers by 7.5 vs the actual margin of 8 points. The game's 28 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 44. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

70%PanthersFavourite

Panthers

70%

Eels

30%

AI Match Overview

Panthers are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Eels. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Panthers carry a 55-point ELO rating advantage (1472 vs 1417). Recent form favours Eels with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Panthers. The margin model predicts Panthers by 7.5 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

3 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Panthers to Win @1.60

Winner ✓

Edge

+5.6%

Line / Spread

Panthers -4.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+5.6%

Total Points

Under 45.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+4.3%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Panthers
WWLLL
23.6
Eels
WWWLL
26.0

Avg Conceded

20.2

Panthers

17.2

Eels

Avg Margin

3.4

Panthers

8.8

Eels

Run Metres

1705

Panthers

1814

Eels

Line Breaks

4.0

Panthers

6.2

Eels

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Panthers
Peter Gough176 games since 2016

Each team's win rate when Peter Gough refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

PEN
68%13W 6L
PAR
38%10W 16L

When Peter Gough officiates, Panthers have won 13 of 19 games (68%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Eels's 10 from 26 (38%). That's a 30‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 44.3 pts, sitting close to the league average.

Avg Total

44.3 pts

Home Win %

53%

Home Bias

Neutral

H2H History (Last 5)Panthers lead 4-1
Mar 2026PEN 48 - 20 PAR
Jul 2025PEN 32 - 10 PAR
Aug 2024PEN 36 - 34 PAR
Mar 2024PEN 26 - 18 PAR
Sep 2023PEN 18 - 32 PAR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

PEN
1472Overall1417
PAR
ELO difference: +55 in favour of Panthers

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1156Forwards1169
Best: 1292PAR +14Best: 1373
1003Backs1105
Best: 1055PAR +102Best: 1233
1202Halves1099
Best: 1202PEN +103Best: 1099
951Hooker1036
PAR +84

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

PEN
Stat
PAR
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
23.6pts
Avg Score
26.0pts
20.2pts
Avg Conceded
17.2pts
3.4pts
Avg Margin
8.8pts
1705.0m
Run Metres
1814.2m
4.0
Line Breaks
6.2
369.4
Tackles
342.6
10.6
Errors
10.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Panthers
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Eels
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Eels
4
Halves Control9.0%
Panthers
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Eels
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Panthers

Model Confidence

70%

Panthers predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: +7.5

3/3 match predictions correct
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