NRL | Round 12

alphr.com.au

PEN
Panthers
VS
NEW
Knights
CARRINGTON PARK, BATHURST • SATURDAY 24 MAY, 5:30 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Belinda Sharpe officiated this match (21 career games). The combined score of 31 points was 10 points below Belinda Sharpe's career average of 41. Knights's victory aligns with Belinda Sharpe's historical trend — Knights have a 67% win rate under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Knights defied the model's 61% prediction for Panthers — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 4.1 but the actual margin was 19 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 42.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

61%PanthersFavourite

Panthers

61%

Knights

39%

AI Match Overview

Panthers hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Panthers ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Panthers carry a 196-point ELO rating advantage (1526 vs 1330). Recent form favours Panthers with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Knights. The margin model predicts Panthers by 4.1 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Panthers to Win @1.34

Lost ✗

Edge

-3.6%

Line / Spread

Panthers -8.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

-3.6%

Total Points

Under 42.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.5%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Panthers
WWLLL
24.8
Knights
WLLLL
16.4

Avg Conceded

21.2

Panthers

23.2

Knights

Avg Margin

3.6

Panthers

-6.8

Knights

Run Metres

1755

Panthers

1783

Knights

Line Breaks

4.2

Panthers

5.0

Knights

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Knights
Belinda Sharpe21 games since 2019

Each team's win rate when Belinda Sharpe refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

PEN
0%0W 2L
NEW
67%2W 1L

When Belinda Sharpe officiates, Knights have won 2 of 3 games (67%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Panthers's 0 from 2 (0%). That's a 67‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 40.8 pts, sitting close to the league average. Note: Based on a limited sample of 2 games for Panthers — interpret with caution.

Avg Total

40.8 pts

Home Win %

52%

Home Bias

Neutral

H2H History (Last 5)Panthers lead 5-0
Aug 2025PEN 48 - 12 NEW
Aug 2024PEN 22 - 14 NEW
Jun 2024PEN 26 - 18 NEW
Jul 2023PEN 20 - 12 NEW
Apr 2023PEN 16 - 15 NEW
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

PEN
1526Overall1330
NEW
ELO difference: +196 in favour of Panthers

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1025Forwards1064
Best: 1281NEW +39Best: 1271
1013Backs862
Best: 1149PEN +151Best: 969
863Halves1242
Best: 863NEW +379Best: 1242
1035Hooker948
PEN +87

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

PEN
Stat
NEW
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
24.8pts
Avg Score
16.4pts
21.2pts
Avg Conceded
23.2pts
3.6pts
Avg Margin
-6.8pts
1755.2m
Run Metres
1783.4m
4.2
Line Breaks
5.0
356.2
Tackles
402.8
11.0
Errors
14.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Panthers
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Knights
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Panthers
4
Halves Control9.0%
Knights
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Panthers
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Panthers

Model Confidence

61%

Panthers predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: +4.1

1/3 match predictions correct
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