AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (59 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 5 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 45.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Eels defied the model's 62% prediction for Sea Eagles — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 1.2 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 40 — within 3 points. Eels led 16–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 43.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Eels
38%
Sea Eagles
62%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Eels are far from out of this at 38%. Eels are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors — including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Venue Advantage — but Sea Eagles counter with ELO Difference and Halves Control which tips the scales. Sea Eagles carry a 161-point ELO rating advantage (1528 vs 1367). The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 1.2 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.47
Lost ✗
Edge
-4.8%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles +5.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-4.8%
Total Points
Under 43.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.7%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | WWLLL | 22.4 |
Sea Eagles | WWLLL | 20.0 |
Avg Conceded
25.2
Eels
18.0
Sea Eagles
Avg Margin
-2.8
Eels
2.0
Sea Eagles
Run Metres
1716
Eels
1679
Sea Eagles
Line Breaks
5.8
Eels
4.2
Sea Eagles
Each team's win rate when Liam Kennedy refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Liam Kennedy officiates — Eels 5W–4L (56%) and Sea Eagles 4W–3L (57%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 45.4 pts, sitting close to the league average. Note: Based on a limited sample of 7 games for Sea Eagles — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
45.4 pts
Home Win %
51%
Home Bias
Neutral
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: -1.2
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