AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 17 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 51. Rabbitohs's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend — Rabbitohs have a 40% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Rabbitohs prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Rabbitohs to win at 53% probability. The predicted margin of 0.6 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 46.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Wests Tigers
47%
Rabbitohs
53%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Rabbitohs a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Rabbitohs ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Recent form favours Wests Tigers with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Rabbitohs.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Rabbitohs to Win @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.3%
Line / Spread
Wests Tigers +1.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.3%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+7.7%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Wests Tigers | WWWLL | 19.2 |
Rabbitohs | WLLLL | 11.6 |
Avg Conceded
30.4
Wests Tigers
24.8
Rabbitohs
Avg Margin
-11.2
Wests Tigers
-13.2
Rabbitohs
Run Metres
1620
Wests Tigers
1550
Rabbitohs
Line Breaks
2.8
Wests Tigers
2.4
Rabbitohs
Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Rabbitohs hold a 7‑point edge: 2W–3L (40%) vs Wests Tigers's 2W–4L (33%) across all games Wyatt Raymond has refereed for each side. His games average 50.6 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Wests Tigers an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 5 games for Rabbitohs — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
50.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Rabbitohs predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +0.6
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