AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (287 career games). The combined score of 57 points was 14 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Sharks's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Sharks defied the model's 60% prediction for Storm — a notable upset. The predicted margin of 5.8 was reasonable against the actual 5-point result. A tough result for the model — all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sharks
40%
Storm
60%
AI Match Overview
Storm hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Sharks are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Storm ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 79-point ELO rating advantage (1659 vs 1580). Recent form favours Sharks with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Storm. The margin model predicts Storm by 5.8 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.60
Lost ✗
Edge
-6.9%
Line / Spread
Storm +3.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-6.9%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+4.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sharks | WWWWL | 26.8 |
Storm | WWWLL | 34.0 |
Avg Conceded
16.8
Sharks
18.4
Storm
Avg Margin
10.0
Sharks
15.6
Storm
Run Metres
1772
Sharks
1739
Storm
Line Breaks
4.2
Sharks
6.4
Storm
Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Adam Gee officiates — Sharks 29W–12L (71%) and Storm 29W–12L (71%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 42.6 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Sharks an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
42.6 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Storm predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: -5.8
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