NRL | Round 11

alphr.com.au

CAN
Raiders
VS
GLD
Titans
GIO STADIUM, CANBERRA • SUNDAY 18 MAY, 4:05 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (59 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 19 points above Liam Kennedy's career average of 45. Raiders's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend — Raiders have a 80% win rate under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 68% probability. The predicted margin of 9.9 was reasonable against the actual 16-point result. The game's 64 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 43. Raiders led 18–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 16. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

68%RaidersFavourite

Raiders

68%

Titans

32%

AI Match Overview

Raiders are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Titans. The model sees Raiders ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Raiders carry a 208-point ELO rating advantage (1555 vs 1346). Recent form favours Raiders with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Raiders by 9.9 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Raiders to Win @1.35

Winner ✓

Edge

-8.7%

Line / Spread

Raiders -9.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-8.7%

Total Points

Under 48.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+13.9%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Raiders
WWWWL
32.0
Titans
WLLLL
19.2

Avg Conceded

22.0

Raiders

35.2

Titans

Avg Margin

10.0

Raiders

-16.0

Titans

Run Metres

1704

Raiders

1552

Titans

Line Breaks

5.8

Raiders

3.8

Titans

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Raiders
Liam Kennedy59 games since 2018

Each team's win rate when Liam Kennedy refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

CAN
80%4W 1L
GLD
23%3W 10L

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Raiders have won 4 of 5 games (80%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Titans's 3 from 13 (23%). That's a 57‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 45.0 pts, sitting close to the league average. Note: Based on a limited sample of 5 games for Raiders — interpret with caution.

Avg Total

45.0 pts

Home Win %

51%

Home Bias

Neutral

H2H History (Last 5)Raiders lead 5-0
Apr 2025CAN 30 - 20 GLD
Apr 2024CAN 21 - 20 GLD
Jul 2023CAN 26 - 22 GLD
Jul 2022CAN 36 - 24 GLD
Mar 2022CAN 24 - 22 GLD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAN
1555Overall1346
GLD
ELO difference: +208 in favour of Raiders

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1087Forwards1084
Best: 1318EvenBest: 1340
862Backs1167
Best: 1037GLD +304Best: 1287
1173Halves1327
Best: 1173GLD +154Best: 1327
1068Hooker929
CAN +139

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAN
Stat
GLD
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
32.0pts
Avg Score
19.2pts
22.0pts
Avg Conceded
35.2pts
10.0pts
Avg Margin
-16.0pts
1704.2m
Run Metres
1552.2m
5.8
Line Breaks
3.8
316.2
Tackles
346.4
9.4
Errors
10.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Raiders
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Raiders
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Titans
4
Halves Control9.0%
Titans
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Raiders
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Raiders

Model Confidence

68%

Raiders predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: +9.9

2/3 match predictions correct
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