AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (312 career games). The combined score of 30 points was 13 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Sea Eagles's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend — Sea Eagles have a 53% win rate under this referee. Despite Grant Atkins's 55% career home-team win rate, the away side Sea Eagles prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Sea Eagles defied the model's 65% prediction for Cowboys — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 3.2 but the actual margin was 18 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 51.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Cowboys
65%
Sea Eagles
35%
AI Match Overview
Cowboys are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sea Eagles. The model sees Cowboys ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Cowboys carry a 35-point ELO rating advantage (1525 vs 1490). Recent form favours Cowboys with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Sea Eagles. The margin model predicts Cowboys by 3.2 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Cowboys to Win @1.74
Lost ✗
Edge
+7.8%
Line / Spread
Cowboys -2.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+7.8%
Total Points
Under 51.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+20.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Cowboys | WWWLL | 30.4 |
Sea Eagles | WLLLL | 20.0 |
Avg Conceded
22.4
Cowboys
26.4
Sea Eagles
Avg Margin
8.0
Cowboys
-6.4
Sea Eagles
Run Metres
1878
Cowboys
1641
Sea Eagles
Line Breaks
6.6
Cowboys
4.6
Sea Eagles
Each team's win rate when Grant Atkins refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Sea Eagles hold a 8‑point edge: 19W–17L (53%) vs Cowboys's 14W–17L (45%) across all games Grant Atkins has refereed for each side. His games average 43.0 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 55% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Cowboys an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
43.0 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
65%
Cowboys predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +3.2
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