AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (360 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 14 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Dragons bucked the trend — Broncos historically win 61% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Dragons prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Dragons defied the model's 68% prediction for Broncos — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 9.2 but the actual margin was 4 points. Dragons trailed 12–4 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 26–30. A tough result for the model — all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Broncos
68%
Dragons
32%
AI Match Overview
Broncos are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Dragons. The model sees Broncos ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Referee Tendency. Broncos carry a 73-point ELO rating advantage (1453 vs 1380). Recent form favours Dragons with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Broncos. The margin model predicts Broncos by 9.2 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.30
Lost ✗
Edge
-9.6%
Line / Spread
Broncos -10.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-9.6%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+14.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Broncos | WLLLL | 19.6 |
Dragons | WWLLL | 23.6 |
Avg Conceded
23.6
Broncos
25.8
Dragons
Avg Margin
-4.0
Broncos
-2.2
Dragons
Run Metres
1541
Broncos
1733
Dragons
Line Breaks
4.8
Broncos
7.2
Dragons
Each team's win rate when Gerard Sutton refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Gerard Sutton officiates, Broncos have won 35 of 57 games (61%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Dragons's 10 from 33 (30%). That's a 31‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 41.8 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Broncos an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
41.8 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
68%
Broncos predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +9.2
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