AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (360 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Sharks prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Sharks defied the model's 66% prediction for Sea Eagles — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 4.0 but the actual margin was 16 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 44 — within 4 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
66%
Sharks
34%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sharks. Sharks are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control — but Sea Eagles counter with Forward Pack and Referee Tendency which tips the scales. Sharks carry a 29-point ELO rating advantage (1550 vs 1521). Recent form favours Sharks with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sea Eagles. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 4.0 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.65
Lost ✗
Edge
+6.9%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles -2.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+6.9%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+21.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | WWLLL | 22.4 |
Sharks | WWWLL | 24.8 |
Avg Conceded
22.8
Sea Eagles
18.8
Sharks
Avg Margin
-0.4
Sea Eagles
6.0
Sharks
Run Metres
1727
Sea Eagles
1815
Sharks
Line Breaks
5.2
Sea Eagles
3.8
Sharks
Each team's win rate when Gerard Sutton refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Gerard Sutton officiates — Sea Eagles 21W–22L (49%) and Sharks 24W–21L (53%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 41.9 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Sea Eagles an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
41.9 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Sharks hold the ELO advantage (1550 vs 1521), but the market favours Sea Eagles (@1.65).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +4.0
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.