AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (287 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 9 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Bulldogs bucked the trend — Raiders historically win 55% of games under Adam Gee, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Bulldogs prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Bulldogs defied the model's 62% prediction for Raiders — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 4.3 but the actual margin was 12 points. Bulldogs trailed 20–0 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 20–32. A tough result for the model — all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Raiders
62%
Bulldogs
38%
AI Match Overview
Raiders hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Bulldogs are far from out of this at 38%. The model sees Raiders ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Recent form favours Raiders with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 4 for Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Raiders by 4.3 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Raiders to Win @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+3.9%
Line / Spread
Raiders +1.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+3.9%
Total Points
Under 44.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+4.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Raiders | WWWWW | 32.8 |
Bulldogs | WWWWL | 25.6 |
Avg Conceded
19.6
Raiders
13.2
Bulldogs
Avg Margin
13.2
Raiders
12.4
Bulldogs
Run Metres
1744
Raiders
1757
Bulldogs
Line Breaks
5.8
Raiders
5.2
Bulldogs
Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Raiders hold a 7‑point edge: 22W–18L (55%) vs Bulldogs's 13W–14L (48%) across all games Adam Gee has refereed for each side. His games average 42.6 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Raiders an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
42.6 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Bulldogs hold the ELO advantage (1595 vs 1584), but the market favours Raiders (@1.90).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Raiders predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +4.3
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