NRL | Round 10

alphr.com.au

NEW
Knights
VS
GLD
Titans
MCDONALD JONES STADIUM, NEWCASTLE • FRIDAY 9 MAY, 6:00 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Belinda Sharpe officiated this match (21 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Belinda Sharpe's career average of 40. Titans bucked the trend — Knights historically win 100% of games under Belinda Sharpe, but couldn't convert that edge today.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Titans defied the model's 69% prediction for Knights — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 8.1 but the actual margin was 4 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 44 — within 3 points. Titans trailed 20–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 20–24. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

69%KnightsFavourite

Knights

69%

Titans

31%

AI Match Overview

Knights are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Titans. The model sees Knights ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Knights carry a 87-point ELO rating advantage (1404 vs 1317). Recent form favours Knights with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Titans. The margin model predicts Knights by 8.1 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Knights to Win @1.52

Lost ✗

Edge

+1.5%

Line / Spread

Knights -5.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+1.5%

Total Points

Under 47.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+18.2%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Knights
WLLLL
12.0
Titans
LLLLL
16.4

Avg Conceded

20.8

Knights

38.4

Titans

Avg Margin

-8.8

Knights

-22.0

Titans

Run Metres

1672

Knights

1465

Titans

Line Breaks

4.0

Knights

2.6

Titans

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Knights
Belinda Sharpe21 games since 2019

Each team's win rate when Belinda Sharpe refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

NEW
100%3W 0L
GLD
0%0W 4L

When Belinda Sharpe officiates, Knights have won 3 of 3 games (100%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Titans's 0 from 4 (0%). That's a 100‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 40.2 pts, sitting close to the league average. Note: Based on a limited sample of 3 games for Knights — interpret with caution.

Avg Total

40.2 pts

Home Win %

52%

Home Bias

Neutral

H2H History (Last 5)Knights lead 3-2
Mar 2025NEW 6 - 26 GLD
Sep 2024NEW 36 - 14 GLD
May 2024NEW 28 - 24 GLD
May 2023NEW 46 - 26 GLD
Aug 2022NEW 26 - 36 GLD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

NEW
1404Overall1317
GLD
ELO difference: +87 in favour of Knights

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1217Forwards1061
Best: 1350NEW +157Best: 1308
1179Backs821
Best: 1204NEW +359Best: 968
1380Halves1381
Best: 1380EvenBest: 1381
1173Hooker1030
NEW +143

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

NEW
Stat
GLD
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
0.0
12.0pts
Avg Score
16.4pts
20.8pts
Avg Conceded
38.4pts
-8.8pts
Avg Margin
-22.0pts
1672.0m
Run Metres
1464.6m
4.0
Line Breaks
2.6
412.2
Tackles
344.2
15.0
Errors
10.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Knights
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Knights
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Knights
4
Halves Control9.0%
Titans
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Knights
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Titans

Model Confidence

69%

Knights predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: +8.1

1/3 match predictions correct
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