AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 15 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 51. Dolphins's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend — Dolphins have a 67% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Dolphins prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Dolphins defied the model's 62% prediction for Eels — a notable upset. The predicted margin of 3.0 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 49.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Eels
62%
Dolphins
38%
AI Match Overview
Eels hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Dolphins are far from out of this at 38%. Dolphins are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control — but Eels counter with Backline Quality and Referee Tendency which tips the scales. Dolphins carry a 112-point ELO rating advantage (1453 vs 1340). Recent form favours Dolphins with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Eels. The margin model predicts Eels by 3.0 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Eels to Win @1.80
Lost ✗
Edge
+5.5%
Line / Spread
Eels -1.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+5.5%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+16.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | WWLLL | 20.6 |
Dolphins | WWWLL | 32.4 |
Avg Conceded
29.6
Eels
24.0
Dolphins
Avg Margin
-9.0
Eels
8.4
Dolphins
Run Metres
1591
Eels
1657
Dolphins
Line Breaks
4.6
Eels
4.6
Dolphins
Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Dolphins have won 2 of 3 games (67%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Eels's 4 from 8 (50%). That's a 17‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 50.5 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Eels an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 3 games for Dolphins — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
50.5 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1453 vs 1340), but the market favours Eels (@1.80).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Eels predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +3.0
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