AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (59 career games). The combined score of 29 points was 17 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 46.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 55% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Warriors by 3.0 vs the actual margin of 1 points. The game's 29 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 45. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Dragons
45%
Warriors
55%
AI Match Overview
Warriors hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 45%. The model sees Warriors ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Warriors carry a 146-point ELO rating advantage (1539 vs 1393). Recent form favours Warriors with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Warriors by 3.0 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warriors to Win @1.80
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.1%
Line / Spread
Warriors +2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.1%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dragons | WWLLL | 25.2 |
Warriors | WWWWL | 23.2 |
Avg Conceded
27.4
Dragons
24.4
Warriors
Avg Margin
-2.2
Dragons
-1.2
Warriors
Run Metres
1713
Dragons
1707
Warriors
Line Breaks
7.6
Dragons
4.2
Warriors
Each team's win rate when Liam Kennedy refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Liam Kennedy officiates — Dragons 8W–2L (80%) and Warriors 4W–1L (80%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 45.6 pts, sitting close to the league average. Note: Based on a limited sample of 5 games for Warriors — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
45.6 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Neutral
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
55%
Warriors predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: -3.0
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