AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (312 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 5 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Raiders's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend — Raiders have a 57% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 1.4 but the actual margin was 22 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 38 — within 5 points. Raiders led 16–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 22. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Raiders
53%
Warriors
47%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Raiders a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Raiders ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Raiders carry a 45-point ELO rating advantage (1468 vs 1422). Recent form favours Raiders with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Warriors. The margin model predicts Raiders by 1.4 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Raiders to Win @2.60
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.7%
Line / Spread
Raiders +5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.7%
Total Points
Over 42.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-1.7%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Raiders | WWWLL | 18.0 |
Warriors | WLLLL | 22.0 |
Avg Conceded
28.4
Raiders
30.0
Warriors
Avg Margin
-10.4
Raiders
-8.0
Warriors
Run Metres
1580
Raiders
1798
Warriors
Line Breaks
3.0
Raiders
4.4
Warriors
Each team's win rate when Grant Atkins refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Grant Atkins officiates, Raiders have won 26 of 46 games (57%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Warriors's 12 from 29 (41%). That's a 16‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 42.9 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
42.9 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1468 vs 1422), but the market favours Warriors (@1.63).
The model sides with ELO — Raiders predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Raiders predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +1.4
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