NRL | Finals Week 1

alphr.com.au

NZL
Warriors
VS
PEN
Panthers
GO MEDIA STADIUM • SATURDAY 28 FEB, 7:36 PM

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 55% probability. The predicted margin of 4.0 was reasonable against the actual 16-point result. Panthers led 2–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 16. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

55%PanthersFavourite

Warriors

45%

Panthers

55%

AI Match Overview

Panthers hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Warriors are far from out of this at 45%. The model sees Panthers ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Panthers carry a 119-point ELO rating advantage (1566 vs 1447). The margin model predicts Panthers by 4.0 points with a combined total of 46.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Panthers to Win @1.35

Winner ✓

Edge

-21.7%

Line / Spread

Panthers +7.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-21.7%

Total Points

Over 43.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+6.2%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Warriors
WWLLL
21.6
Panthers
WWLLL
25.2

Avg Conceded

22.6

Warriors

20.4

Panthers

Avg Margin

-1.0

Warriors

4.8

Panthers

Run Metres

1659

Warriors

1781

Panthers

Line Breaks

3.8

Warriors

5.8

Panthers

H2H History (Last 5)Panthers lead 4-1
Jun 2025NZL 18 - 28 PEN
May 2024NZL 22 - 20 PEN
Sep 2023NZL 6 - 32 PEN
May 2023NZL 6 - 18 PEN
Aug 2022NZL 12 - 46 PEN
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

NZL
1447Overall1566
PEN
ELO difference: -119 in favour of Panthers

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1130Forwards1145
Best: 1364PEN +15Best: 1284
1058Backs1132
Best: 1175PEN +74Best: 1185
1129Halves1163
Best: 1129PEN +34Best: 1163
999Hooker1072
PEN +73

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

NZL
Stat
PEN
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
21.6pts
Avg Score
25.2pts
22.6pts
Avg Conceded
20.4pts
-1.0pts
Avg Margin
4.8pts
1659.4m
Run Metres
1780.8m
3.8
Line Breaks
5.8
339.0
Tackles
394.8
10.0
Errors
11.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Panthers
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Panthers
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Panthers
4
Halves Control9.0%
Panthers
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
7
Venue Advantage7.0%

Model Confidence

55%

Panthers predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 46 · Line: -4.0

2/3 match predictions correct
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