NRL | Finals Week 1

alphr.com.au

MEL
Storm
VS
CBY
Bulldogs
AAMI PARK • SATURDAY 28 FEB, 7:36 PM

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 69% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Storm by 7.0 vs the actual margin of 8 points. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 44 — within 2 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

69%StormFavourite

Storm

69%

Bulldogs

31%

AI Match Overview

Storm are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Bulldogs. The model sees Storm ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency. Storm carry a 93-point ELO rating advantage (1635 vs 1542). Recent form favours Storm with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Storm by 7.0 points with a combined total of 42.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Storm to Win @1.50

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.4%

Line / Spread

Storm -4.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.4%

Total Points

Over 37.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+13.5%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Storm
WWWLL
17.6
Bulldogs
WWLLL
18.4

Avg Conceded

20.8

Storm

18.8

Bulldogs

Avg Margin

-3.2

Storm

-0.4

Bulldogs

Run Metres

1509

Storm

1501

Bulldogs

Line Breaks

3.6

Storm

6.4

Bulldogs

H2H History (Last 5)Storm lead 4-1
Sep 2025MEL 20 - 14 CBY
Apr 2024MEL 16 - 14 CBY
Mar 2023MEL 12 - 26 CBY
Mar 2022MEL 44 - 0 CBY
Apr 2021MEL 52 - 18 CBY
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

MEL
1635Overall1542
CBY
ELO difference: +93 in favour of Storm

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1041Forwards1098
Best: 1242CBY +57Best: 1283
932Backs1026
Best: 988CBY +94Best: 1152
1130Halves1173
Best: 1130CBY +43Best: 1173
933Hooker600
MEL +333

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

MEL
Stat
CBY
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
17.6pts
Avg Score
18.4pts
20.8pts
Avg Conceded
18.8pts
-3.2pts
Avg Margin
-0.4pts
1508.8m
Run Metres
1501.0m
3.6
Line Breaks
6.4
357.6
Tackles
346.0
10.2
Errors
11.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Storm
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Bulldogs
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Bulldogs
4
Halves Control9.0%
Bulldogs
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Storm
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Storm
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Storm

Model Confidence

69%

Storm predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: +7.0

3/3 match predictions correct
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