AI Game Review
Broncos defied the model's 57% prediction for Raiders — a notable result. The margin model was sharp — predicting Raiders by 2.0 vs the actual margin of 1 points. Broncos trailed 18–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 28–29. A tough result for the model — all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Raiders
57%
Broncos
43%
AI Match Overview
Raiders hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Broncos are far from out of this at 43%. The model sees Raiders ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Halves Control and Referee Tendency. Recent form favours Broncos with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Raiders. The margin model predicts Raiders by 2.0 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Raiders to Win @1.65
Lost ✗
Edge
-2.7%
Line / Spread
Raiders -3.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-2.7%
Total Points
Under 45.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+5.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Raiders | WWWLL | 21.6 |
Broncos | WWWWL | 30.8 |
Avg Conceded
23.6
Raiders
21.2
Broncos
Avg Margin
-2.0
Raiders
9.6
Broncos
Run Metres
1484
Raiders
1670
Broncos
Line Breaks
4.0
Raiders
6.6
Broncos
ELO–Market Disagreement
Broncos hold the ELO advantage (1612 vs 1600), but the market favours Raiders (@1.65).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Raiders predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +2.0
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