AI Win Probability
Western Bulldogs
62%
Essendon
38%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Essendon are far from out of this at 38%. The model sees Western Bulldogs ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Western Bulldogs carry a 85-point ELO rating advantage (1590 vs 1506). Recent form favours Western Bulldogs with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Essendon. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 12.6 points with a combined total of 192.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.00
Edge
-37.6%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs -74.5 @1.90
Edge
-37.6%
Margin Band
Western Bulldogs 1-39 @3.30
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 191.5 @1.89
Edge
+2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | WWWWL | 97.5 |
Essendon | WWWLL | 88.3 |
Avg Conceded
90.0
Western Bulldogs
97.2
Essendon
Avg Margin
26.2
Western Bulldogs
-3.2
Essendon
Disposals
344.1
Western Bulldogs
364.7
Essendon
Inside 50s
54.6
Western Bulldogs
51.6
Essendon
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 13 points
Predicted total: 192 · Line: +12.6
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