Win Probability
AI Win Probability
West Coast Eagles
51%
Sydney Swans
49%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives West Coast Eagles a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Sydney Swans are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO — but West Coast Eagles counter with Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Sydney Swans carry a 44-point ELO rating advantage (1523 vs 1479). Recent form favours West Coast Eagles with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sydney Swans. The margin model predicts West Coast Eagles by 12.1 points with a combined total of 180.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
West Coast Eagles to Win @5.10
Edge
+31.8%
Line / Spread
West Coast Eagles +32.5 @1.90
Edge
+31.8%
Margin Band
West Coast Eagles 1-39 @3.30
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 182.5 @1.89
Edge
+2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
West Coast Eagles | WWWLL | 107.7 |
Sydney Swans | WWLLL | 74.7 |
Avg Conceded
95.7
West Coast Eagles
82.2
Sydney Swans
Avg Margin
-2.2
West Coast Eagles
1.0
Sydney Swans
Disposals
379.3
West Coast Eagles
372.7
Sydney Swans
Inside 50s
56.2
West Coast Eagles
44.7
Sydney Swans
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
51%
West Coast Eagles predicted to win by 12 points
Predicted total: 180 · Line: +12.1
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.