AFL | Round 4

alphr.com.au

OPTUS STADIUM • SATURDAY 4 APR, 7:35 PM

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

51%West Coast EaglesFavourite

West Coast Eagles

51%

Sydney Swans

49%

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives West Coast Eagles a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Sydney Swans are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO — but West Coast Eagles counter with Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Sydney Swans carry a 44-point ELO rating advantage (1523 vs 1479). Recent form favours West Coast Eagles with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sydney Swans. The margin model predicts West Coast Eagles by 12.1 points with a combined total of 180.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

West Coast Eagles to Win @5.10

Edge

+31.8%

Line / Spread

West Coast Eagles +32.5 @1.90

Edge

+31.8%

Margin Band

West Coast Eagles 1-39 @3.30

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 182.5 @1.89

Edge

+2.1%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
West Coast Eagles
WWWLL
107.7
Sydney Swans
WWLLL
74.7

Avg Conceded

95.7

West Coast Eagles

82.2

Sydney Swans

Avg Margin

-2.2

West Coast Eagles

1.0

Sydney Swans

Disposals

379.3

West Coast Eagles

372.7

Sydney Swans

Inside 50s

56.2

West Coast Eagles

44.7

Sydney Swans

H2H History (Last 5)Sydney Swans lead 5-0
Aug 2025WCE 51 - 118 SYD
Mar 2024WCE 78 - 104 SYD
Jun 2023WCE 34 - 205 SYD
Apr 2022WCE 58 - 121 SYD
Jun 2021WCE 26 - 118 SYD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WCE
1479Overall1523
SYD
ELO difference: -44 in favour of Sydney Swans

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

949Midfield1007
SYD +58
1001Forwards1062
SYD +61
941Defence992
SYD +50
1011Ruck966
WCE +45

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WCE
Stat
SYD
2.8
Wins (Last 5)
2.5
107.7pts
Avg Score
74.7pts
95.7pts
Avg Conceded
82.2pts
-2.2pts
Avg Margin
1.0pts
379.3
Disposals
372.7
56.2
Inside 50s
44.7

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Swans
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
Swans
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
Swans
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
Swans
6
Venue Advantage7.0%
Eagles
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

51%

West Coast Eagles predicted to win by 12 points

Predicted total: 180 · Line: +12.1

Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props