Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 56% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 2.7 but the actual margin was 54 points. The game's 184 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 168. Brisbane Lions led 62–33 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 54. The model went 1/4 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Brisbane Lions
56%
Collingwood
44%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Collingwood are far from out of this at 44%. The model sees Brisbane Lions ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Brisbane Lions carry a 27-point ELO rating advantage (1527 vs 1500). Recent form favours Collingwood with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Brisbane Lions. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 2.7 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.38
Winner ✓
Edge
-16.7%
Line / Spread
Collingwood +17.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
-16.7%
Margin Band
Brisbane Lions 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 175.5 @1.87
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Brisbane Lions | WWWLL | 90.9 |
Collingwood | WWWWL | 71.8 |
Avg Conceded
65.5
Brisbane Lions
88.9
Collingwood
Avg Margin
-3.8
Brisbane Lions
12.1
Collingwood
Disposals
374.7
Brisbane Lions
368.2
Collingwood
Inside 50s
56.9
Brisbane Lions
43.5
Collingwood
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +2.7
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.