Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 51% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Fremantle by 0.5 vs the actual margin of 2 points. The game's 154 points came in 24 points lower than the predicted 178. The model went 3/4 on this match. The Draw margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Adelaide Crows
49%
Fremantle
51%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Fremantle a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Fremantle ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO. Fremantle carry a 22-point ELO rating advantage (1539 vs 1518). Recent form favours Fremantle with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Adelaide Crows.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.84
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.1%
Line / Spread
Fremantle +1.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.1%
Margin Band
Fremantle Draw @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 175.5 @1.93
Lost ✗
Edge
+3.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Adelaide Crows | WWLLL | 80.7 |
Fremantle | WWWLL | 97.6 |
Avg Conceded
87.2
Adelaide Crows
82.0
Fremantle
Avg Margin
14.2
Adelaide Crows
-1.0
Fremantle
Disposals
350.5
Adelaide Crows
371.6
Fremantle
Inside 50s
47.1
Adelaide Crows
46.6
Fremantle
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
51%
Fremantle predicted to win by 0 points
Predicted total: 178 · Line: -0.5
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.