AFL | Round 3

alphr.com.au

STK
St Kilda
VS
BRI
Brisbane Lions
MARVEL STADIUM • SATURDAY 28 MAR, 12:35 PM

Win Probability

AI Game Review

Brisbane Lions defied the model's 53% prediction for St Kilda — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 7.6 but the actual margin was 33 points. The game's 193 points came in 25 points higher than the predicted 168. Brisbane Lions trailed 39–31 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 80–113. A tough result for the model — all 4 picks missed on this one.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

53%St KildaFavourite

St Kilda

53%

Brisbane Lions

47%

✨

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives St Kilda a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees St Kilda ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. St Kilda carry a 245-point ELO rating advantage (1482 vs 1237). Recent form favours St Kilda with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Brisbane Lions. The margin model predicts St Kilda by 7.6 points with a combined total of 168.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

St Kilda to Win @2.55

Lost ✗

Edge

+13.7%

✗

Line / Spread

St Kilda +12.5 @1.90

Lost ✗

Edge

+13.7%

✗

Margin Band

St Kilda 1-39 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 187.5 @1.87

Lost ✗

Edge

+1.5%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
St Kilda
WWWWL
90.4
Brisbane Lions
WLLLL
67.0

Avg Conceded

88.0

St Kilda

106.6

Brisbane Lions

Avg Margin

2.4

St Kilda

-39.6

Brisbane Lions

Disposals

376.8

St Kilda

346.8

Brisbane Lions

Inside 50s

50.0

St Kilda

50.0

Brisbane Lions

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model
⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

St Kilda hold the ELO advantage (1482 vs 1237), but the market favours Brisbane Lions (@1.65).

The model sides with ELO — St Kilda predicted to win despite longer odds.

📊Team ELO Ratings

STK
1482Overall1237
BRI
ELO difference: +245 in favour of St Kilda

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1366Midfield1107
Best: 1366STK +259Best: 1107
1058Forwards1042
Best: 1346STK +16Best: 1308
1226Defence1130
Best: 1469STK +95Best: 1254
1568Ruck1240
Best: 1568STK +328Best: 1240

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

STK
Stat
BRI
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
90.4pts
Avg Score
67.0pts
88.0pts
Avg Conceded
106.6pts
2.4pts
Avg Margin
-39.6pts
376.8
Disposals
346.8
50.0
Inside 50s
50.0
58.4
Tackles
50.8
36.0
Clearances
37.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Kilda
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
Kilda
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Kilda
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
Kilda
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
Kilda
6
Scoring Form8.0%
Kilda
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
—

Model Confidence

53%

St Kilda predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 168 · Line: +7.6

0/4 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props