Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 69% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 12.5 but the actual margin was 60 points. The game's 146 points came in 22 points lower than the predicted 168. Fremantle led 39–33 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 60. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The over 143.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Fremantle
69%
Richmond
31%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Richmond. The model sees Fremantle ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Fremantle carry a 103-point ELO rating advantage (1551 vs 1448). Recent form favours Richmond with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Fremantle. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 12.5 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.03
Winner ✓
Edge
-27.7%
Line / Spread
Fremantle -48.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
-27.7%
Margin Band
Fremantle 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 143.5 @1.88
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Fremantle | WWLLL | 83.0 |
Richmond | WWWLL | 96.3 |
Avg Conceded
89.5
Fremantle
80.7
Richmond
Avg Margin
22.4
Fremantle
-0.7
Richmond
Disposals
333.3
Fremantle
365.0
Richmond
Inside 50s
48.0
Fremantle
46.2
Richmond
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
69%
Fremantle predicted to win by 13 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +12.5
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.