Win Probability
AI Game Review
North Melbourne defied the model's 51% prediction for Essendon — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 11.1 but the actual margin was 12 points. The game's 150 points came in 18 points lower than the predicted 168. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 190.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Essendon
51%
North Melbourne
49%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Essendon a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. North Melbourne are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate — but Essendon counter with overall balance which tips the scales. North Melbourne carry a 138-point ELO rating advantage (1483 vs 1345). Recent form favours North Melbourne with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Essendon. The margin model predicts Essendon by 11.1 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Essendon to Win @2.60
Lost ✗
Edge
+12.1%
Line / Spread
Essendon +12.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+12.1%
Margin Band
Essendon 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 190.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Essendon | LLLLL | 79.4 |
North Melbourne | WWLLL | 74.6 |
Avg Conceded
108.8
Essendon
101.8
North Melbourne
Avg Margin
-29.4
Essendon
-27.2
North Melbourne
Disposals
391.8
Essendon
347.0
North Melbourne
Inside 50s
50.0
Essendon
50.0
North Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
51%
Essendon predicted to win by 11 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +11.1
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.