Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 4.1 but the actual margin was 33 points. The game's 141 points came in 27 points lower than the predicted 168. Collingwood led 39–30 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 33. A clean sweep — all 4 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Collingwood
61%
GWS GIANTS
39%
AI Match Overview
Collingwood hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though GWS GIANTS are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Collingwood ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Collingwood carry a 26-point ELO rating advantage (1518 vs 1493). Recent form favours GWS GIANTS with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Collingwood. The margin model predicts Collingwood by 4.1 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Collingwood to Win @1.43
Winner ✓
Edge
-8.6%
Line / Spread
Collingwood -15.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-8.6%
Margin Band
Collingwood 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 175.5 @1.87
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Collingwood | WLLLL | 78.5 |
GWS GIANTS | WWWWL | 79.6 |
Avg Conceded
96.8
Collingwood
73.7
GWS GIANTS
Avg Margin
16.4
Collingwood
18.9
GWS GIANTS
Disposals
354.9
Collingwood
336.2
GWS GIANTS
Inside 50s
46.2
Collingwood
53.5
GWS GIANTS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Collingwood predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +4.1
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.