Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Carlton
66%
Melbourne
34%
AI Match Overview
Carlton are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Melbourne. Melbourne are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO — but Carlton counter with Midfield ELO which tips the scales. Melbourne carry a 162-point ELO rating advantage (1590 vs 1428). Recent form favours Melbourne with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Carlton. The margin model predicts Carlton by 8.1 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Carlton to Win @1.97
Lost ✗
Edge
+15.1%
Line / Spread
Carlton +1.5 @1.89
Lost ✗
Edge
+15.1%
Margin Band
Carlton 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 180.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Carlton | WLLLL | 74.6 |
Melbourne | WWWLL | 96.2 |
Avg Conceded
74.2
Carlton
75.0
Melbourne
Avg Margin
0.4
Carlton
21.2
Melbourne
Disposals
370.2
Carlton
363.0
Melbourne
Inside 50s
50.0
Carlton
50.0
Melbourne
ELO–Market Disagreement
Melbourne hold the ELO advantage (1590 vs 1428), but the market favours Carlton (@1.97).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Carlton predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +8.1
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.